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Dr. Sebastian Buschow – Reconciling risk-based and Storyline Climate Change Attribution with Bayes Theorem
June 18 @ 11:00
This semester, we are excited to announce that the seminar series will be hosted by our collaborative partner ECMWF at their buildings in Bonn and it will be streamed online (via zoom).CESOC continues the seminar series “My Research” this Summer term 2024 with
Dr. Sebastian Buschow
from the Institute of Institute of Geosciences, Meteorology Department at the University of Bonn, talking on their work
“Reconciling risk-based and Storyline Climate Change Attribution with Bayes Theorem”
when: on Tuesday, 18 June 2024 at 11:00 am (CEST)
It is open to any interested person within the CESOC research disciplines (any Earth system sciences, mathematics or computer science).
Please contact info[@]cesoc.net, if you would like to participate.
Full Schedule could be found here!
Abstract:
The question to what extent climate change is responsible for extreme weather events has been at the forefront of public and scholarly discussion for years. Proponents of the “risk-based” approach to attribution attempt to give an unconditional answer based on the probability of some class of events in a world with and without human influences. As an alternative, so-called “storyline” studies investigate the impact of a warmer world on a single, specific weather event. This can be seen as a conditional attribution statement. This talk gives an overview of the two schools of event attribution and shows how they can be linked using Bayes’ theorem.